CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 06 Jul 06:00 - Thu 07 Jul 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 06 Jul 00:45 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z... a large high pressure area at low, mid and upper tropospheric levels is located over central and northern Scandinavia. An elongated trough over the British Isles extends to the Benelux countries and a small low perssure core should be present over east-central Germany and move southeastwards. Another low pressure area is located over the eastern Ukraine. An shortwave trough over Archangelskaya oblast that is preceded by a cold front, moves rapidly southward.

DISCUSSION

...Benelux, Germany...
A weak occluded frontal system marked by a strong wind shift is expected to move eastward across the area marked SEE TEXT. Steep low-level lapse rates as well as the strong vertical vorticity associated with the wind shift are thought to provide opportunity for low-level rotation to form in updrafts. As a result, a couple of weak tornadoes and/or waterspouts may well occur across the area.

...eastern Finland, St. Petersburg area...
Slight vertical vorticity and updrafts that are strong in the lower troposphere may produce a few of weak spout-type tornadoes across the area.

...central and eastern Ukraine...
In this region, slight vertical vorticity and strong updrafts may produce a few of weak spout-type tornadoes as well.

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